July 18, 2012
The European Commission has released an EU-Japan FTA/Impact Study. According to the report, under conservative asymmetric and symmetric scenarios: the estimated gains in GDP for the EU amount to 42 billion Euros in the case of asymmetric NTM cost reductions or as much as 92.8 billion Euros in the case of symmetric NTM cost reductions; for Japan, the comparable amounts round to 5.1 billion Euros. Under these conservative scenarios (and in the asymmetric case), EU exports to Japan would increase by 22.6%, while Japan’s export to the EU would increase by 17.1%.
Under the ambitious asymmetric and symmetric scenarios, the model predicts GDP increases for the EU of 99.8 billion Euros for asymmetric NTM cost reductions or as much as 319.3 billion Euros in the case of symmetric NTM cost reductions. Under this ambitious scenario, with asymmetric cost reductions from NTMs, EU exports to Japan would increase by 32.7%, while Japan export to the EU would increase by 23.5%.